The Outlook for the LPG Carrier markets to 2024 Issue No. 30 AUG 2020

 

SUMMARY

So Far the Sector has Performed Better than Might Have Been Expected 

World Economy and Oil Prices

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its April economic outlook, forecast a contraction of 3% for the world economy this year but have since lowered it to a contraction of 4.9% for this year but with 5.4% growth for next year. The IMF warns of a crisis unlike anything the world has ever seen before. As restrictions ease, the path to economic recovery is uncertain with threats of a second wave of the virus, the OECD in its latest June outlook has presented growth rates for both single hit and double hit scenarios.

We have taken a more pessimistic view – closer to the OECD single hit scenario - by assuming a decline of 6.3% this year followed by 4.9% recovery next year. Importantly in both cases an asymmetric recovery is envisaged. While the pace of recovery may be strong initially there are some industries – such as aviation – which could take a long time to recover and some people who find it difficult to find employment having lost it during the pandemic.

We have assumed that the OPEC basket price would average $42.5/bbl in the current quarter, up from $26.5/bbl in the second quarter. By the fourth quarter of this year it is assumed that the price would average $45/bbl and would still be around $45/bbl by the fourth quarter of next year. By 2024, the price would average $50/bbl compared with $41.5/bbl for this year as a whole.

To read more, please email rla@richardsonlawrie.com / info@wademaritime.com to subscribe.

Maritime Market report - Week 27 2008

Tanker Market: Firm
The Vlcc market has seen some strength in the past couple of weeks owing to a steady stream of cargoes in the MEG. The average ws rate on the MEG-USG route picked up 10 ws points to 150 ws. These rates are still below the high's of 175 ws achieved earlier in the year, but substantially better than the low's of 65ws for 2008 to date. The market saw some correction for the WAF-West market, but is still holding ws 180-190 level. Aframax rates saw the biggest correction in the past week due to limited stems and greater tonnage availability. Rates in the N.Sea declined from 315ws to 170ws in 2 weeks. te upcoast market in the caribs saw a correction of 120ws points this week.
The product market witnessed less activity in the western hemisphere, although the market is still holding to pretty strong levels. LR's for US disch are still maintaining 260-270ws levels owing to lack of quality tonnage. The east of Suez market is also holding good levels with LR2's at ws250-255 lvl, LR1's at ws 300 lvl and the UKC market at 3 million basis 65,000 mt. The market is expected to hold this level in the coming week.
Following vessels were sold this week ending July 02, 2008 [Fearnleys]

Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comments
Astro Capricorn 320,000 2008 Chinese 203.0 Coiled DH
Nordic Bay 114,945 2008 Neda Maritime 91.0
Nordic Lisbeth 72,714 2006 UnDiscld 68.0 D/Hull
GSI resale 50,500 2009 Greeks 57.5 Dely 3Q/2009

Dry Bulk Market : Slow
The Baltic Dry Index fell from 14000 to 9140 level over the last 2 weeks resulting in a lackluster dry bulk market with declines in most segments. Handy's on voyages to the US are now fetching around usd 37,000/day. The India to China market is still strong despite the monsoon in full force with rates in the high 50,000's/day. The M/V Sinina British Marine relet was reported at usd 59,000 dely Chennai for tct China [www.fearnleys.com]. Supramaxes for Indo/India coal with del S.China are fetching low/mid 60,000s depending on the size. The Panamax market was down around usd 3000 this week with the BPI standing at roughly usd 74,000. The front haul business improved a bit to around with vsl's concluded at usd 93,000 lvl's. Pacific rv's stood at around usd 70,000, whilst the backhaul rate dropped to usd 60,000 towards the end of the week. The capesize spot market dropped to usd 152,000 for this week. The Brazil/China route stood at usd 86.50/mt and the fronthaul tc fetched around 200k/day. Little period activity was witnessed in the capesize market. The year to date avg for capesize vsl's across major routes now stand at usd 130,560 as per Platou [www.platou.com]
Following vessels were sold this week ending July 02, 2008 [Fearnleys]
Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comments
Paragon 71,259 1995 Chinese 60.0 del feb/09
Mandarin Sea 57,000 2008 Turkish 75.0

Gas Market: Low
The Blatic VLGC index showed some positive movement this week with it's lvl at usd 65,643/mt. lack of tonnage in July and long positions in August will result in some more strengthening in rates. The Sonatrch FOB prices are attractive for cargoes to to move from MEG to west destinations.

New Building Market : Stable
The current market conditions for both tankers and dry bulkers are resulting in a strong interest from owners to opt for new tonnage well into 2012. Rizao steel has placed orders for 8 capesize bulkers at SWS and DSW. Atlanska Plovidba placed an order of four 80,000 tonners bulk carriers at Jiangsu Eastern.