To register, please email info@wademaritime.com / eileen@miceglobal.com
Sunday, August 23, 2020
The Outlook for the LPG Carrier markets to 2024 Issue No. 30 AUG 2020
SUMMARY
So Far the Sector has Performed Better than Might Have Been Expected
World Economy and Oil Prices
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its April economic outlook, forecast a contraction of 3% for the world economy this year but have since lowered it to a contraction of 4.9% for this year but with 5.4% growth for next year. The IMF warns of a crisis unlike anything the world has ever seen before. As restrictions ease, the path to economic recovery is uncertain with threats of a second wave of the virus, the OECD in its latest June outlook has presented growth rates for both single hit and double hit scenarios.
We have taken a more pessimistic view – closer to the OECD single hit scenario - by assuming a decline of 6.3% this year followed by 4.9% recovery next year. Importantly in both cases an asymmetric recovery is envisaged. While the pace of recovery may be strong initially there are some industries – such as aviation – which could take a long time to recover and some people who find it difficult to find employment having lost it during the pandemic.
We have assumed that the OPEC basket price would average $42.5/bbl in the current quarter, up from $26.5/bbl in the second quarter. By the fourth quarter of this year it is assumed that the price would average $45/bbl and would still be around $45/bbl by the fourth quarter of next year. By 2024, the price would average $50/bbl compared with $41.5/bbl for this year as a whole.
To read more, please email rla@richardsonlawrie.com / info@wademaritime.com to subscribe.
Short Term Outlook - Oil Tanker Market Issue No. 181 Aug 2020
Summary
Drawdown of Global Oil Inventories to Dominate Near Term Tanker Market Outlook
Overview
Anything that is absolutely certain now is nothing but uncertainty. With a whole lot of events happening all around the world it is the Virus that is contributing the most to this uncertain environment. As the world has seen almost everything from the highs to the lows nobody knows what to expect next.
Economic recovery can be seen from the start of the third quarter but for how long it will continue depends on whether we see the second wave of the virus or not. With many nations again experiencing an increase in the number of infections, this recovery may be short lived. It may be that without a vaccine we have reached the point where any further relaxations of economic activity are guaranteed to bring about an increase in COVID-19 cases. It is then for governments to weight the opposing risks to the welfare of citizens versus the health of economies.
The future of the tanker market broadly depends on the recovery in global GDP growth rates and the recovery of oil supplies but also the near term impact of a rundown in oil inventories. Meanwhile the one outcome of the uncertain economic and regulatory outlook is a gradually shrinking newbuilding orderbook.
The OPEC+ agreement to cut oil supply by 10% has brought some balance into the oil market. With oil demand increasing and reduced levels of supply, oil prices recovered in the second quarter. Both oil demand and supply are expected to recover in the second half of the year but the pace of the recovery for consumption is expected to be higher than the supply, resulting in a fall in oil inventories. This can only have a negative impact on the tanker market after a time when Owners have seen strong returns from the demand for floating storage.
To read more, please subscribe by emailing rla@richardsonlawrie.com / info@wademaritime.com
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
A unique opportunity to expand your knowledge about Bills of Lading and Charter
A unique opportunity to expand your knowledge about Bills of Lading and Charter Party clauses. Understand the commercial and legal functions of Bills of Lading including issues with regard to endorsement, enforcement and common discrepancies with Bills of Lading. Obtain a good understanding of The Hague, Hague-Visby, Hamburg and Rotterdam Rules.
This four days workshop will further provide you an opportunity to explore key charter party clauses related to off-hire, cargo claims, speed and consumption. You will learn about both ship owners and charterers obligations under both voyage and time charter contracts. You will be guided through the complexities of a speed and consumption claim and will have the opportunity to discuss various performance issues in a workshop setting.
This course has been designed for participants who have some prior industry experience and knowledge and who wish to broaden their knowledge of this litigious area relating to Bills of Lading and Charterparties.
MCF Training Grant is available for eligible participants. Please refer to www.mpa.gov.sg/mcf for information.
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